Saturday, October 17, 2009

A Farewell to Arms, Skates and Pucks

1) JR

On August 6, the NHL officially lost another all-time great with the retirement of JR, Jeremy Roenick. Like Joe Sakic before him, Roenick came to the conclusion that he was simply no longer able to play the way he used to as a younger player. His stats bear witness to that sentiment as well. Roenick has not topped 70 games played in a season since 2002-03. Furthermore, when he had been able to lace up in recent seasons, he has not produced at nearly the level he had once been accustomed to. It may be that Roenick is an example of how the strike harmed many NHL careers. In the last season before the work stoppage (2003-04), Roenick played in 62 games and compiled 47 points. Not a world beater, but a still healthy 0.76 points per game, very much in line with his output in 2002-03. In the four years since the lockout, JR topped out at 0.48 points-per-game and bottomed out last year at a career worst 0.31 points-per-game.

Originally brought into the NHL as part of the storied draft class of 1988, Roenick was the highest drafted player (9th overall) to not come from the CHL, having been scouted by the Blackhawks at Thayer Academy in Braintree, Massachusetts, where he starred alongside Tony Amonte. Roenick is one of six players from that draft to exceed 1000 NHL points, in addition to Mike Modano (1st overall, Minnesota North Stars), Rod Brind’Amour (9th overall to the Blues), Teemu Selanne (10th overall to the Winnipeg Jets), Mark Recchi (lasted until the 4th round, 67th overall to Pittsburgh) and Alexander Mogilny (taken in the 5th round, 89th overall by the Sabres). While he never took home any individual or team hardware, Roenick represented the Stars and Stripes at two Olympic tournaments (’98 and ’02) and played in 9 All-Star Games.
Roenick finishes his career ranking in the all-time top 50 in games played, goals, assists, points, power play goals, shorthanded goals and game winning goals. His 1216 career points, which puts him tied for 39th all-time with Larry Murphy, will likely not be passed by more than two players (draft-mates Selanee and Brind`Amour) by the time he is eligible for the NHL Hall of Fame in three years. When compared with other recently retired greats (as discussed here) Roenick`s career GVT score of 259.1 places him 61st all-time, right between Doug Gilmour and Adam Oates, two players he is sure to be compared to as 2nd tier hockey stars. It may be, however, more apt to compare JR to Mark Messier, for in addition to his role as leading point-producer and pivot man, Roenick was never shy when it came to the rougher side of the beautiful game, amassing 1463 penalty minutes in his long career, including 40 career fighting majors.
For all the power he brought to his game on the ice, JR often displayed even more bravado away from the rink. Just in the short time between his last game as an active NHLer and his retirement announcement a few weeks ago, Roenick made sure the hockey media knew what he thought about his former teammate and future Hall of Famer, Chris Chelios. During the Stanley Cup playoffs, Roenick let it be known that Chelios had not been suiting up for the steamrolling Wings as their head coach was simply not fond of American-born players, stating “The coach just doesn't like him for some ungodly known reason, I think he's got a grudge against American players, but he does not like Cheli at all.” A few weeks later, after Chelios was informed by the Red Wings that he would not be brought back to the club in 2009-10, Roenick made sure we all knew where Chelios wanted to go next, saying that the 47-year-old “wants to play in New York, for the Rangers and Glen Sather.” His willingness to speak not just when spoken to often put him at odds with some media members, a fact that some think will eventually keep him out of the Hall of Fame. It is true that his numbers would not look out of place on either side of the in/out line, but his intangibles deflate his accomplishments, as JR was never able to get his name engraved on the Stanley Cup, only reaching the Finals once, in 1991-92, when his Blackhawks were swept by Mario Lemieux’s Penguins. The feeling may be that, outside of his quotes, Roenick was always playing second fiddle, even in retirement, being overshadowed by Joe Sakic this offseason. The NHL will bid farewell to dozens and dozens of players this season, but few will be missed like JR.

2) Dozens and Dozens of Players
Rarely does a professional hockey player (or any professional athlete for that matter) get to decide when he has had enough. Beyond JR, and the previously ballyhooed exit of Burnaby Joe Sakic, 20-year pro Teppo Numminen called it a career taking his 159.6 lifetime GVT (172nd all-time – who knew?!?) to the Finnish National team, where he will help as a scout in the run-up to the Games in Vancouver. Numminen almost had the decision taken out of his hands two years ago, undergoing open heart surgery in September 2007. His return from that procedure to play 58 more games at the sport’s highest level is almost as amazing as being able to play in 1314 games prior to the surgery.
Most other, less celebrated, players have their careers taken from them through the cruel process of natural selection. NHL talent evaluators simply deem them insufficiently skilled to play a further role going forward. The strongest proof of that can be seen through a few simple numbers. In the 2007-08 NHL season, 851 non-goalies played in at least one NHL game. 155 of them were not so privileged one year later. That means that over 18% of all skaters were not able to return to the game. Some, like Erik Johnson of the St. Louis Blues, will be back, having missed last season sue to injury. Others, like Jaromir Jagr, Ray Emery and Alexander Radulov preferred the lucre offered by the KHL and delivered their services to their new, Russian paymasters. A large number of the non-returning were players with little NHL experience (44 had only played in 1 or 2 NHL seasons), and spent all of the 2008-09 season in the minor leagues, trying to get back. There were journeymen like Mark Hartigan and Joe DiPenta, who had paid their AHL dues already, and unable to find a contract to their liking, plied their wares in Europe. DiPenta, after a season spent with Swedish powerhouse Frölunda HC, will be returning to the promised land of the NHL, having signed a one-year contract with the Buffalo Sabres (after all, someone has to replace Numminen).
A few of last year’s more celebrated departees, like Dominik Hasek, Trevor Linden and Glen Wesley were lucky enough to take the high road and formally announce their retirement. They can be directly contrasted to seasoned vets including Martin Gelinas (20 year NHL career) and Jim Dowd (17 years) who simply could not find work last year.
As with many changes in the recent NHL landscape the jobs that Gelinas and Dowd may have been searching for are now going to younger, hungrier players who would be willing to play for substantially less money, and to sign with less of a guarantee of available NHL playing time, players made more attractive to decision makers in the salary cap era. Gelinas earned $1.25 million to contribute 20 points over 57 games with the Nashville Predators. With Gelinas removed from the lineup, the Predators were able to call up youngster Joel Ward, who contributed 35 points in 79 games, and for only $500,000.
The decisions faced last year by Dowd, Gelinas and many, many others is now begin faced by a new group of players. While the top tier (and 2nd and 3rd tier, as well) free agents all having already signed contracts for the 2009-10 season, there are still others who don’t know what country their next employers will be stationed in, much less the colors of their next uniform. Is there a job to be found for Kevin Weekes? ( apparently, yes ) Manny Fernandez? Kyle Calder? Last year, Calder contributed 2.7 GVT to the young Kings, while pocketing a very symmetrical $2.7 million for his efforts. With less than 1 month to go before training camps open, there are few teams that even have $2.7 of space left under the salary cap. If a player like Calder, or the similarly available and previously overly remunerated Christian Backman want to return to the NHL this year, they will need to accept the fact that their services will not pay them as handsomely as they had been used to. And if they accept that, they will have to win a spot the hard way – through NHL training camp. In the cases of Calder and Backman, that task proved too daunting.
While some younger and unsigned players may feel free to explore life overseas, there are also a good number of players who could contribute in the right situation, but are not pressured by their predicament to do anything drastic, having already left a lasting mark on the game, and/or not wanting to uproot their families. One such player is long-time Canadiens defenseman, Patrice Brisebois. Having not yet received any serious interest from NHL teams, Brisebois, a veteran of over 1000 NHL games and a Stanley Cup winner, does not know what his future holds, and was not in any rush to make a decision , as he felt that he was “not at the point where I've got to play hockey.” Another player slow to make up his mind is recent Cup winner Philippe Boucher. With two children and many battle scars earned, Boucher felt physically ready to play again, but was ambivalent regarding where he would be willing to go to do so. Boucher recently discussed his quandary , admitting that retirement is an option and that his family will play a key role in any decision. “It is more difficult for my family,” he conveyed. “Either we stay in Pittsburgh, we come to Quebec or that we are moving to another city so I can continue to play hockey.” For these two (who eventually decided to hang up their skates, and many others, we may not receive answers until the start of the NHL slate. In the case of Dominic Moore , and maybe Marc-Andre Bergeron as well, we had to wait until after the season had already started. But we can look at them now, and at other free agents, and find part of the human side to the questions we grapple with at Puck Prospectus in quantifying replacement threshold values. There are only so many jobs in the NHL and the competition is fierce. Very few survive. Fewer survive for long.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Return

After a lengthy hiatus moonlighting as a writer with www.puckprospectus.com (see my articles here: http://www.puckprospectus.com/news/index.php?author=16), I am now free to return to my blogging roots.
More to come.