Notes from the Quarter

The Maple Leafs have now played 22 games, over one quarter of their way into the season, have sunk below the .500 mark in terms of success and have a new general manager, the long-time-coming Brian Burke. If I was optimistic (very guardedly) about the team after ten games (with 11 points), I am decidedly less so today, having accumulated only 9 additional points in the past 12 games.

In the next 10 minutes or so, the opening puck will drop for the Leafs on home ice, hosting the Flyers of Philadelphia. In the mean time I will unburden some observations about the past dozen games and conjecture on what the next month or so may bring.

As began in my last two posts, I have been keeping track of the team's success level on special teams. After ten games, the Leafs were averaging one power play goal for every 7:41 for power play time. That rate was slightly better than their level of time killing penalties. When their opponents were on the power play, the Leafs surrendered one goal every 7:57. Scoring power play goals more frequently than they surrendered them helped the Leafs put up 11 points in 10 games.

Over the next 10 games, from their 5-2 victory over the Rangers on November 1, through to their 5-4 overtime loss to the Blackhawks on November 22, the Leafs scored 10 power play goals in 74 minutes and 39 seconds. That's 7:28 between power play goals. Slightly better than their rate over the first ten games. Yet in this span the Leafs only gained eight more points on their seasonal ledger. Why? One key component was their abject failure when attempting to kill penalties. In that 10-game stretch, the Leafs were on the penalty kill for a grand total of 52 minutes and 3 seconds (52:03). They surrendered 12 goals. That works out to one power play goal against for every 4:20 of penalty killing time. That's nearly 42% worse than their success rate while on the power play.

My first assumption was that the loss of defenseman Mike Van Ryn to injury could be attributed. He was very solid for the Leafs in his first fourteen games. Yet digging into the numbers shows that it was the first four games of the stretch in question that hurt the Leafs penalty kill number the most - while Van Ryan was still there.


Game Power Play Goals Power Play Time Penalty Kill Penalty Kill Time
11/1 vs NYR 0 goals 9:43 0 goals allowed 3:43
11/2 @ Car 0 goals 4:00 3 goals allowed 8:41
11/4 vs Car 1 goal scored 5:31 1 goal allowed 2:41
11/6 @ Bos 0 goals 6:38 2 goals allowed 4:05
11/8 vs Mon 3 goals scored 11:20 2 goals allowed 7:50
11/11 @ Cal 1 goal scored 6:47 1 goal allowed 0:48
11/13 @ Edm 3 goals scored 5:31 1 goal allowed 7:36
11/15 @ Van 1 goal scored 12:58 1 goal allowed 7:00
11/17 vs Bos 0 goals 6:48 0 goals allowed 4:15
11/22 vs Chi 1 goal scored 5:23 1 goal allowed 5:24


Van Ryn was hurt during the Boston game. In the four games of this period where Van Ryn had a chance to exert his influence on events, the Leafs surrendered 6 power play goals. In the six subsequent games, they allowed 6. Small samples of course, but it is clear that his absence has not yet demonstrably hurt the Leafs' ability to kill penalties.

It remains to be seen how those rates change over time. Also, for the upcoming ten game stretch (including the two already played out) the Leafs have made a significant change, trading bit players Carlo Colaiacovo and Alex Steen to St. Louis for Lee Stempniak. As of right now, I am confident in proclaiming Stempniak to be the best player of the three involved, with the caveat that both Colaiacovo and Steen have good pedigrees and youth and may eventually pan out as being as good, if not better than Stempniak.

Two days after the trade, the Leafs made a significant move that may not be played out directly on the ice, but will have ever expanding ramifications regarding the lineup of available players. I am of course referring to the new general manager (and president) of the club - Brian Burke. He, too, has an outstanding hockey pedigree, having led the 2007 Anaheim Ducks to the Stanley Cup Championship as well as being notable for having sent his last seven teams to the playoffs (courtesy of www.nhl.com). So how do we judge his affect on the team? What I propose to do is begin tracking player transactions under his watch. I have taken a snapshot of the team that goes into tonight's matchup against the Flyers (he was anointed to his role today and no moves have yet occurred) and will log any changes as they occur over time - at least through the end of this season and as far forward as I can take it.

He is inheriting a team that is exciting, if not very successful. In my terms,Burke will be deemed a success if he keeps the team exciting to watch, yet manages to improve their likelihood of winning. The ride won't be smooth, but the bumps can be thrilling. Let's enjoy the ride.