Wednesday, May 7, 2008

The Neutral Pitcher

I'm a big fan of Shaun Marcum - well, I'm a big fan of most of the Blue Jays pitchers, but this is about Shaun Marcum.
It has seemed to me, and this was backed up by his game tonight against the Rays, that Marcum is quite hit-shy. Opponents have a hard time getting base hits off of him. It's not that he always strikes out the side, but that the ball is not hit hard, or hit right to the fielders.
Looking at the numbers, that is supported. Including tonight, Marcum has pitched 294 Major League innings, allowing only 270 hits. Less than a hit per inning. His opponent's average (not including tonight) is a composite .246. Tonight he came one out away from a one-hit shutout. He ended up with 4 hits allowed in 8,2/3IP.
Amateur scouting tells me that he throws a lot strikes, but the numbers say that his BB/9 rate has only just beat the ML average. His K/9 rate is also just a bit better than ML average.
According to fangraphs.com, his flyball and groundball rates are quite similar, not deviating too much in either direction. In fact, his years favoring one type of hit were always balanced by years going the other way.
Baseball Prospectus says he has good command, his fastball tops out in the high 80's but with great sink and that he has three other average pitchers.
In summary, Shaun Marcum is a neutral pitcher. Does Shaun Marcum have a greater understanding of what it takes to pitch (not throw, pitch)? I think he does. He is the 4th starter for the Jays and possibly the best fourth starter in baseball. Barring injuries, I think he can pitch effectively for a long time. PECOTA, take note - avoiding basehits can be a repeatable skill.

The great challenge for an amateur statistician is in deciphering the details that are not recorded in the stats. Such as Pitching brains, and ability to execute.