Just How Special are the Leafs' Special Teams?

I have been tracking power play and penalty kill success for the Maple Leafs throughout the season and breaking things down into ten game increments.

I have noted power play goals scored, time spent on the power play (in the case of a full two minutes of five on three hockey, I would count that as 4 minutes of power play, as one goal gets only one guy back on the ice), power play goals allowed and time spent killing penalites - all for each game - the breakdowns are to get ten game averages as I thought that amount of time would account for the vagaries of good and bad games and give me a visual of how stable this tracking is. I also noted all major personnel changes. This was easy for the Leafs as there has been little change in this regards throughout the season thus far. I have noted injuries to key players, though (Van Ryn, Kaberle, Schenn, Stajan and Hagman). I have also noted the opponent and the home/road factor, but have not calculated for those elements.

Here are my results:

Power Play Success

Games 1-10: 11 goals scored in 84:33 - 1 goal every 7:41

Games 11-20: 10 goals scored in 74:39 - 1 goal every 7:28

Games 21-30: 6 goals scored in 72:53 - 1 goal every 12:09 (this period saw the trade of Colaiacovo and Steen for Stempniak as well as significant missed time by Schenn, Hagman and Van Ryn)

Games 31-40: 9 goals scored in 68:02 - 1 goal every 7:34

Games 41-50: 7 goals scored in 52:49 - 1 goal every 7:33

Games 51-60 - still ongoing - the pace is down, but Tomas Kaberle (the QB of the power play has been out)

Conclusion - without having looked at other teams yet, I can't say how their power play stacks up relatively speaking. But I can draw some inferences. As Pierre LeBrun pointed out in a recent ESPN chat (http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=25109), scoring is a gift - a skill that not everyone has. Seeing as how the Leafs have consistenly scored one goal in every 7.5 minutes of power play time (not counting that one ten-game blip), that is simply their skill level. The Leafs brain trust (John Ferguson Jr. --> Cliff Fletcher --> Brian Burke) has created a team with a set skill level.

Ability to Kill Penalties

Games 1-10: 9 goals allowed in 71:41 - 1 goal every 7:57

Games 11-20: 12 goals allowed in 52:03 - 1 goal every 4:20

Games 21-30: 4 goals allowed in 58:10 - 1 goal every 14:32 (this period saw the trade of Colaiacovo and Steen for Stempniak as well as significant missed time by Schenn, Hagman and Van Ryn)

Games 31-40: 14 goals allowed in 52:33 - 1 goal every 3:45

Games 41-50: 10 goals allowed in 62:04 - 1 goal every 6:12

Games 51-60 - still ongoing - results seem similar to games 41-50 at first glance


Conclusion - to get back to Mr. LeBrun, while goal scoring is a skill, smart, defensive hockey can be worked at. Maybe the Leafs are simply not working at hard, or smart, enough. In some stretches, the Leafs are allowing power play goals at nearly double the rate they are scoring them, opportunities notwithstanding. It is probably a very good thing that the Leafs simply don't take too many penalties. going with the traditional way of tracking team power play and penalty kill success, the Leafs are converting 19.9% of their power play opportunities, 13th in the NHL (is it fair to say their skill level is 13th best in the NHL?). They kill penalties at a 73.7% clip - dead last by a full percentage point past #29. Interestingly, only 4 teams (Colorado, San Jose, Boston and Minnesota) have been shorthanded less, but only Atlanta has surrended more power play goals. They are also tied for last with 2 shorthanded goals scored. Are the Leafs the dumbest, laziest team in the NHL? I don't know how skilled or dumb the Leafs are, but I think it is safe to say, with the consistent numbers produced by the power play and the wildly varying numbers in the penalty kill, that scoring is an art and preventing goals is a science. The artist can only be as good as he is, but the scientist will not always get the same results.

I want to to run a study of another team or two after the season is over - any suggestions? full numbers are available by request.